Opinions On Eveything

Now before some people think that I'm some left wing nutjob let me just say that I think the general idea and purpose of the "Bush Doctrine" is actually pretty good but has been undermined due to Pollyanna, pie in the sky thinking by the Powers That Be. The general gist of the Doctrine is something I think anybody can agree on. The gist of the Doctrine is that the United States would always be against States of terror and/or states that harbour terrorism.

Sounds pretty good so far right?

Well there's another part of the Doctrine which is really the heart of it and something that has been so closely identified to George W. Bush that when things are going bad it directly comes back to bite him on the butt. This is simply the "democracy aspect". The theory behind this is that if the Middle East is given democracy that the people will rebel against what we in the west view as the yoke of theocratic dictatorships and governments that more or less sponsor terror.

This is where the Doctrine falls flat on its face. Bush has this naive notion that democratic elections will lead to a westernized Middle East that rejects Islam and/or religious control by those governments. The Bush administration seems to believe in a domino theory of one middle eastern nation becoming democratic then every other nation will follow. Unfortunately the United States has such a horrible reputation in the middle east that this is very unlikely.

In fact, it has gone the other way. It started with the War on Iraq which was nothing but a poorly executed invasion that had far too many assumptions on the part of the Pentagon. They believed the people in Iraq would be throwing flowers and worshipping the American troops. Instead, insurgent groups backed by Iran and also home grown Iraqi insurgents took the opportunity to attack an army that was too small in numbers to fully quash the rebellion. Now we're in a situation where Iraqi Sunnis and Shiites are waging a civil war with American Troops stuck in the middle.

Next we look at North Korea, one of the nations mentioned in the "Axis of Evil". You know, Kim Il-Jong's provocations and firing off missiles could've been avoided in many ways. Jong is a guy that in the grand scheme of things isn't THAT bad of a threat. All he wants is attention. Some people call him crazy but in fact he's crazy like a fox. He isn't stupid enough to wage nuclear war on the South or Japan but he's done these nuclear tests and such because he wants to be assured that he'll remain in power. Kim Il-Jong was not a threat when Bill Clinton was in office why? Because the Clinton administration recognized that face to face talks with Jong would be far more effective then having praxes in the region trying to isolate him. The Bush administration however, views face to face talks as a sign of weakness which is just silly because the US still has leverage by using the UN or taking unilateral action if Jong doesn't listen to them.

Next we have Iran. This has become the test of the entire Bush Doctrine. First of all, Iran had relatively democratic and free elections and look who they voted for! Instead of the young, progressive Iranians voting out the conservative elites the people voted for a guy who portrayed himself as "one of them". He has proven to be a thorn on the side of the US. There is growing evidence that Mahmoud Ahmadinejad and Iran has supplied weaponry to Hezbollah and has done everything it can to cause instability in Iraq. This guy is no fool, he wants to create a Middle East where Iran is the strongman of the region. He wants Iran to have the moral authority to stand up against the US and say "look what has happened in Lebanon. We need nuclear weapons as a deterrent for future attacks in the region." In many ways this very strategy may be working and it's going to cause further problems in the long run.

Finally, the Israel-Lebanon conflict is a direct result of "the Bush Doctrine". The US pushed for a UN resolution to get Israel out of Lebanon while at the same time allowing for free elections. Hezbollah, while not winning the election got enough of the votes to have a substantial say in what goes on. They portray themselves as liberators for the Lebanese and Muslims everywhere. They have taken this war as opportunity to win the hearts of the people of Lebanon by offering to rebuild homes that have been bombed, to help the people who need it most. Of course they have also taken the opportunity to put innocent civilians in harm's way then use those casualties to say that the evil Zionists are slaughtering their people.

So why has this all broken down for George Bush?

There are many reasons but I think these three facts alone should explain it pretty well:

1. Unfortunate use of language: After the 9/11 attacks Bush likened the future war on terror as a Crusade. This was immediately met with a mixture of fear and indignation by Muslims all over the world. These people have long memories and by calling the war a "crusade" Bush had inadvertently took it from a war against terror into a war against cultures. Yes, the statement was retracted but the cat has already leapt out of the bag. The other unfortunate use of language was the whole "Axis of Evil" speech which pitted western social and political ideals against other regimes which to one degree or another are harmful but by lumping them all together Bush again caused a stir. The "you're either with us or against us" tone of the speech also alienated most countries right off the bat as well.
2. Seeing the world in absolutes: There is no shades of grey in George W. Bush's world and this has led to quite a number of problems. The belief in democracy through free elections is admirable on the face of it but if one looks deeper they'll see that there has to be a willing participation by the people. As noted above elections in Iran and Lebanon went against the Bush Doctrine. The Iraq experiment was botched from the very beginning because of religious differences from different factions. The people used their voice to elect people and organizations that are anti-US for a reason. There's a long history of animosity against the United States for various reasons. The Bush admin. could've tried to extend an olive branch to the people but due to unfortunate statements and the wanton destruction of Baghdad through "shock and awe" has further entrenched the feeling among middle eastern people that the US is the "Devil".
3. Last but not least, the "black/white" nature of the Bush admin's policies has led to situations where they've looked mighty foolish. First, it was the Iraqi president getting booed during a state visit because he hasn't condemned the actions of Hezbollah. The Bush admin made the flimsy excuse that the president was facing political pressures at home which handcuffs him from speaking out against Hezbollah. Currently, the Bush admin CLEARLY dragged their feet when it came to the Israel-Lebanon conflict. It became transparent right away that the US would use Israel as a proxy to fight against Hezbollah. The whole world had seen about a week of fighting and had had enough but apparently the Bush admin. would NOT seek a cease-fire. Instead, they have allowed the fires of hatred burn even hotter then before. It has become such a precarious situation now that any misstep could very well cause World War III. This could've been avoided if the US had not made itself to be so blatantly on Israel's side. Now you have moderate Arab states grumbling about inaction. Luckily there is now a UN proposal on the table. We shall see how it goes but again the wheels of diplomacy is spinning TOO slowly as this proposal isn't supposed to be looked at until Wednesday or Thursday!

As you can see, almost every action by the Bush admin has had an equal but opposite reaction. I have no answers except to say that "the road to hell is paved with good intentions.